Quantum Computing: Why Experts Say the Future is Arriving Faster Than Expected

TLDR

Over 50% of quantum computing professionals say the field is advancing faster than expected.
The main technical challenges for quantum computing are scalability and error correction.
74.9% of survey respondents expect quantum computing to be superior to classical computing for certain tasks within the next 10 years.
Quantum computing companies are focusing more on scalability, while end-users are more concerned with error correction.
Despite progress, most quantum computing use today is still hybrid (quantum/classical) rather than pure quantum.

A recent survey of 927 quantum computing professionals reveals that the field is advancing more rapidly than many expected. Over 50% of respondents said that quantum computing is progressing faster or much faster than they anticipated a few years ago.

The survey, conducted by QuEra Computing in June 2024, gathered responses from academics (43%), quantum computing companies (19.4%), non-quantum companies (13%), and others interested in the field. Participants came from various countries, with significant contributions from the United States, Canada, Germany, and the United Kingdom.

Despite the rapid progress, quantum computing still faces significant technical hurdles. The survey identified two main challenges: scalability (33.1%) and error correction and fault tolerance (30.9%). Interestingly, quantum computing companies are more focused on solving scalability issues, while end-users are more concerned with error correction.

What best describes your primary interest in quantum computing?

When asked about areas that should receive significant investment to advance quantum computing, respondents highlighted algorithm development, error correction, and hardware development as top priorities. End-users also expressed more concern about quantum cryptography and security than other groups.

The survey revealed optimism about the timeline for quantum advantage. 74.9% of respondents expect quantum computing to be superior to classical computing for certain workloads within the next 10 years. However, academic users were more pessimistic than end-users and quantum companies. Only 29.6% of academics believe quantum can be a superior alternative within the next five years, compared to 47% for end-users and 47.8% for quantum-centric companies.

Currently, most quantum computing use is hybrid, combining quantum and classical approaches. Pure quantum computing use remains limited, especially among end-users. When asked about the value obtained from accessing a quantum computer in the past year, responses were mixed. A plurality reported some value, but many were unclear about the benefits or reported no value.

Organizations are investing in quantum computing for various reasons. The top drivers are exploring future opportunities and preparing for future applications. Companies whose primary business is quantum computing and end-users also emphasized gaining a competitive edge as a key motivation.

The survey also touched on concerns about access to quantum resources. 64.5% of respondents are somewhat or very concerned that it might be difficult to secure quantum computer time on the cloud once the value of quantum computing is proven. This concern echoes current difficulties in securing GPU resources for AI applications.

Regarding the potential impact of quantum computing, 74.9% of respondents are more excited about its potential to do good than concerned about harmful uses. However, they also identified important ethical considerations, with privacy and security (67.2%), equity in access (46.2%), and environmental impact (46.1%) topping the list.

While pure quantum computing is not yet widely used, many professionals in the field believe that quantum advantage for certain tasks is on the horizon.

The focus on overcoming technical challenges like scalability and error correction suggests that researchers and companies are actively working to bring practical quantum computing closer to reality.

As of August 2024, quantum computers exist in various laboratories worldwide, including those run by IBM, Google, Microsoft, and others.

However, the key question remains: When will quantum computers be truly useful and profitable? The survey results suggest that many in the field believe this milestone is approaching, but significant work remains to be done.

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